Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.